class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide # Dirty Wars ## One-Sided Violence ### Jack McDonald --- class: inverse # Outline .pull-left[ > Dirty wars are conflicts where one or more parties denies the political, legal, and/or moral status/standing of their opponents. What dirty wars demonstrate is that one-sided violence is the elementary practice of war. ] .pull-right[ - Targeted Killings - What's In a Name? - One-Sided Violence in War and Political Repression - Targeted Killings and Institutions - Dirty Wars and the Soleimani Strike ] ## Main Points Disagreements about the "proper" name for targeted killings reflect deeper disagreements about what they are, and what they are intended to do Targeted killings demonstrate that asymmetric, hostile, acts of violence are the building block of war (and repression) The problems we see at the institutional level highlight the problem of observation and knowledge creation in war, and the study of war ??? --- class: inverse # Part 1: Targeted Killings - What's In a Name? ??? --- # Rule 1: Bring Receipts .pull-left[ ![Hot air on twitter](img/2020/receipts.jpg) ] .pull-right[ ![Hot air on twitter](img/2020/receipts2.png) ] ??? --- # I Have Written About This Before... .left-column[ ![Ethics cover](img/11/ethicsvwide.png) ![Ethics cover](img/11/enemiesvwide.jpg) ] .right-column[ Utility is central to the legal, ethical and political justification of targeted killings - ...and utility is in the eye of the beholder - The justifications used by the Obama administration don't cover the use of signature strikes by the CIA, but do cover like activity by the DOD American interpretations of international law are integral to its strategic culture - American use of force is guided by its own perception of what is, and is not, lawful under international law - Law creates strong pressures for selectivity, but not necessarily for strategic restraint - It's not about the drones, it's about the creation of stable intelligence/responsibility sharing between institutions with very different attitudes towards violence ] ??? --- # What Are They? ![A whole lotta images](img/11/tkcentre.png) ??? --- # Do They Work? .medium[ - Steven R. David, _Fatal Choices_ (2002) - They don’t work, but are "effective, however, in providing retribution and revenge for a population under siege and may, over the long term, help create conditions for a more secure Israel." - Audrey Cronin, _Ending Terrorism_ (2008) - They can work, but relationship between decapitation and demise isn’t straightforward - Daniel Byman, _A High Price_ (2011) - "Scraping the barrel" - Bryan C. Price, _Targeting Top Terrorists_ (2012) - HVT killings significantly increase mortality rate of terrorist groups - Johnston & Sarbahi, _The Impact of U.S. Drone Strikes on Terrorism in Pakistan_ (2015) - "drone strikes, while unpopular, have bolstered U.S. counterterrorism efforts in Pakistan" - Gill, Piazza & Horgan, _Counterterrorism Killings and Provisional IRA Bombings, 1970–1998_ (2018) - "while killings committed by British counterterrorism forces are easily measurable because of the publicity they created, other counterterrorism efforts were also likely to impact upon PIRA’s ability to engage in sustained IED attacks yet receive little public acknowledgment." ] ??? --- # Decapitation or Disruption? .pull-left[ > Cases where a group has halted a campaign following the killing of the leader are difficult to find, and those examined here do not support the conclusion that assassination ends terrorism. Audrey Cronin, _How Terrorism Ends_ ] .pull-right[ > The number of skilled terrorists is often quite limited... If these generators of terror can be eliminated through arrests or killings, the organization as a whole is disrupted. The movement may still have many willing recruits, but it is no longer effective. Daniel Byman, _A High Price_ ] --- # Something Else? .pull-left[ > For many, industrial metaphors were more appropriate to the relentless process of changing shifts, nightly raids and ceaseless target development work... McChrystal himself often described his whole setup in Iraq as 'the machine'. Mark Urban, _Task Force Black_ ] .pull-right[ ![Task Force Black](img/11/tfb.png) ] ??? --- # But... > ...it is increasingly clear that many consequences of counterterrorism policies cause harm to other national and societal interests, however unintended these secondary effects may be. Martha Crenshaw, _Terrorism Research: The Record_ > ...the measurement of effectiveness requires set criteria, which presupposes a common normative standard. For example, it is necessary to agree on the purpose of counterinsurgency: is it regime survival at any cost, or do we engage in these contests to serve higher purposes and ideals? Democratic statecraft is oriented toward an open political opportunity structure for its people, and the actions of the state are judged by this standard. David Ucko, _'The People are Revolting': An Anatomy of Authoritarian Counterinsurgency_ ??? --- class: inverse # Reflection Question .question[ Is there anything specific about the forms of killing found in "dirty wars"? ] ??? --- class: inverse # Part 2: One-Sided Violence in War and Political Repression ??? --- # Duels, or Ordering Violence? .pull-left[ > War is nothing but a duel on a larger scale... Each tries by physical force to compel the other to do his will; his immediate object is to overthrow his adversary and thereby make him incapable of any further resistance. Carl von Clausewitz, _On War_ (Trans: Jolles) ] .pull-right[ > war is defined by fighting or its immanent possibility and—as an historical, existential, issue in the lives of those who seek to understand it—this definitive element resists disinterested analysis, while tending to instrumentalize knowledge about war. Tarak Barkawi and Shane Brighton, _Powers of War_ ] ??? Brighton/Barkawi quote p.135 --- # The Constitution of War .pull-left[ At what point is a country or polity at war? How do we define the limitations and boundaries of war? - Spatial (geographical limits) - Temporal (start, stop) Is it possible to draw a sharp line between war and peace? ] .pull-right[ > The rules of war define war itself, and... arguments over the applicability or non-applicability of these rules are central to understanding the constitution of war in our world. Jack McDonald, _Enemies Known and Unknown_ ] ??? quote from p.87 --- # One-Sided Violence in War, Peace, and Strategy .pull-left[ > The basic essence of the program is a fully coordinated intelligence effort of all existing GVN and United States agencies targeted specifically on the VCI with the express purpose of neutralizing its effectiveness and control over the people. CIA, _Factsheet for the Senate Armed Services Committee_ ] .pull-right[ ![Field interrogation](img/11/phoenix.jpg) ] ??? https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP80R01720R001100030004-9.pdf --- # The Individualisation of War .left-column[ ![John Rawls](img/11/rawls.jpg) ![Cecile Fabre](img/11/fabre.jpg) ] .right-column[ > [Reductivists] think that all justified killing, in war or outside of it, is justified at root by precisely the same properties. In their most extreme moments, they argue that wars are justified if and only if they are composed exclusively of justified acts of individual self- and other-defense. Nonreductivists think, in a nutshell, that there is something different about killing in war. Wars have some distinctive properties that are relevant to the morality of killing. Seth Lazar, _Just War Theory: Revisionists Versus Traditionalists_ ] ??? --- class: inverse # Reflection Question .question[ Do you think that war/armed conflict is defined by reciprocal or asymmetric violence? Why? ] ??? --- class: inverse # Part 3: Targeted Killings and Institutions ??? --- # Political Problems ![Image spread](img/11/identity.png) ??? --- # Information and Institutional Problems .pull-left[ > Democracies do not make war on the basis of legal memos locked in a D.O.J. safe. General Michael Hayden, Retd. - Interoperability - Intelligence Sharing - Infrastructure - Policy and Politics ] .pull-right[ ![Hayden pic](img/11/hayden.png) ] ??? --- # The Observability of Armed Conflict ![Airwars](img/11/airwars.png) ??? --- # What's an Academic To Do? .left-column[ ![Baitullah Mehsud](img/11/mehsud.png) ![Rorschach Test](img/11/rorschach.jpg) ![Arclight](img/11/precision.png) ] .right-column[ > After the dust cloud dissipated, all that remained of Mehsud was a detached torso. Eleven others died: his wife, his father-in-law, his mother-in-law, a lieutenant, and seven bodyguards. Jane Mayer, _The Predator Drone War_ - The problem of measuring judgments - The problem of measuring precision - The problem of measuring effects ] ??? --- class: inverse # Reflection Question .question[ How do you think militaries will respond to the changing observability of armed conflict in the 21st century? ] ??? --- class: inverse # Part 4: Dirty Wars and the Soleimani Strike ??? --- # The Killing of Soleimani > The Commission concludes that the nato military intervention was illegal but legitimate. The Independent International Commission on Kosovo, _The Kosovo Report_ The killing of Qasem Soleimani was probably unlawful, legitimate, but stupid. Does that matter? If so, how and why? ??? https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/6D26FF88119644CFC1256989005CD392-thekosovoreport.pdf p.4 --- # Why the Soleimani Strike is Very different .pull-left[ ![Iran/KSA confrontation map](img/ilhri/proxy.png) ] .pull-right[ ![Iran's nuclear programme](img/ilhri/program.png) ] ??? --- # Do Rules Matter? .pull-left[ > Force, to meet force, arms itself with the inventions of art and science. It is accompanied by insignificant restrictions, hardly worth mentioning, which imposes on itself under the name of international law and usage, but which do not really weaken its power. Carl von Clausewitz, _On War_ (Trans: Jolles) ] .pull-right[ Translation: ![The Big Lebowski](img/ilhri/lebowski.jpg) ] ??? In war, rules aren't unnecessary obstacles --- # Legitimate Violence > One misses a great deal by looking only at justice. The sense of injustice, the difficulties of identifying the victims of injustice, and the many ways in which we all learn to live with each other’s injustices tend to be ignored, as is the relation of private injustice to the public order. Judith Shklar, _The Faces of Injustice_ > We might think of war as dividing populations into those who are grievable and those who are not. Judith Butler, _Frames of War_ ??? Butler quote, p.38 --- # Whose Opinion Matters? > starvation sieges were replicated throughout the country, with Soleimani’s proxy forces often leading the charge into areas held by anti-Assad rebel troops. In addition to using hunger as a weapon of war, the pro-regime militias used scorched earth tactics. To recapture Aleppo, they bombarded from the ground while the Syrian and Russian air forces bombed from the air; as they reclaimed territory from the rebels, they carried out extrajudicial killings. > In Iraq, the extent of the atrocities carried out by Soleimani’s proxy forces in Sunni communities liberated from ISIS was so extreme that, according to cables leaked by rivals, the intelligence services worried they were undermining Iran’s popular reputation. > amid the hand-wringing, spare a thought for Soleimani’s victims. For a brief moment, their suffering has been eased. Kareem Shaheen, _Dear America: the death of Qasem Soleimani is not all about you_ ??? https://conversationalist.org/2020/01/10/dear-america-the-death-of-qassem-soleimani-is-not-all-about-you/ --- # But Stupid > The fifth assumption is that great powers are rational actors. They are aware of their external environment and they think strategically about how to survive in it. John J. Mearsheimer, _The Tragedy of Great Power Politics_.pull-left[ ![US Bases Abroad](img/ilhri/bases.jpg) ].pull-right[ ![US/China Competition](img/ilhri/competition.jpg) ] ??? --- # \*Cough\* Buy My Books \*Cough\* .left-column[ ![A whole lotta images](img/11/mybooksquare.png) ![Hayden pic](img/11/chathamhousebox.png) ] .right-column[ Jack McDonald, _Drones and the European Union: Prospects for a Common Future_, Chatham House (February 2018) Jack McDonald, _Enemies Known and Unknown: Targeted Killings in America’s Transnational War_, Hurst & Co./OUP (April 2017) Jack McDonald, _Ethics, Law and Justifying Targeted Killings: The Obama Administration at War_, Routledge (August 2016) ] ??? --- class: inverse # Reflection Question .question[ How has your opinion on these topics changed over the course of this term? ] ??? --- class: inverse # Part 5: Conclusions and Connections ??? --- # Key Issues .large[ Asymmetric killing is the fundamental mode of violence in war and armed conflict Targeted killings are novel in that routine selective killing on an individual basis was not an organisational possibility prior to bureaucratic states and militaries Killing at an individual level highlights many of the core normative issues with dirty wars ] ??? 1. asd 2. asd 3. asd 4. asd 5. asd --- # Key Questions .large[ Do you think targeted killings are fundamentally different to "normal" killing in war or national security? Why/why not? Is it right for political leaders to be involved in the operational decision-making process of directing targeted killings? Are targeted killings unfair? Does that matter? ] ??? 1. asd 2. asd 3. asd 4. asd 5. asd