class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide # Dirty Wars ## Political Warfare and Political Repression ### Jack McDonald --- class: inverse # Outline .pull-left[ > Dirty wars are conflicts where one or more parties denies the political, legal, and/or moral status/standing of their opponents. What are the political reasons for this? ] .pull-right[ - Contentious Politics and Political Survival - Political Warfare - Political Repression - Problems Facing Institutions and Organisations - Conclusions and Connections ] ## Main Points The distinction between war, national security, and political repression is not as clear as some might wish Perspectives drawn from social mobilisation can help us to understand the dynamics of internal conflicts Political enmity in dirty wars means that rule-breaking (or suspension) should be expected on one or more sides ??? --- class: inverse # Part 1: Contentious Politics and Political Survival ??? 1. asd 2. asd 3. asd 4. asd 5. asd --- # States, Regimes, Survival .pic60[ ![Simple polity model from _Dynamics of Contention_ by McAdam, Tarrow, Tilly](img/2020/politymodel.png) ] .pull-left[ _De jure_ and _de facto_ state death How do regimes end? - Peaceful power transitions (elections) - Coups - Armed revolution, insurgency - "Peaceful" revolutions ] .pull-right[ How do regimes survive? - Allocating political goods - Institutional change (positive and negative!) - Coup-proofing - Political repression - Counter-insurgency - Counter-terrorism - Counter-subversion] ??? 1. asd 2. asd 3. asd 4. asd 5. asd --- # Violent and Non-Violent Political Contention > Contentious politics occurs when ordinary people – often in alliance with more influential citizens and with changes in public mood – join forces in confrontation with elites, authorities, and opponents. Such confrontations go back to the dawn of history. But mounting, coordinating, and sustaining them against powerful opponents is the unique contribution of the social movement – an invention of the modern age and an accompaniment of the rise of the modern state. Contentious politics is triggered when changing political opportunities and constraints create incentives to take action for actors who lack resources on their own. People contend through known repertoires of contention and expand them by creating innovations at their margins. When backed by well-structured social networks and galvanized by culturally resonant, action-oriented symbols, contentious politics leads to sustained interaction with opponents – to social movements. Sidney G. Tarrow, _Power in Movement_ ??? Tarrow quote p.6 1. asd 2. asd 3. asd 4. asd 5. asd --- # Uncontained Political Contention .pull-left[ .pic80[![classic social movement model from _Dynamics of Contention_ by McAdam, Tarrow, Tilly](img/2020/classicmodel.png) ]] .pull-right[ > To date, researchers have paid far more attention to the evils done against governments (and citizens) by dissidents, rebels, and terrorists than to the evils done by presidents, the police, military, secret service, national guard, and death squads against those within their territorial jurisdiction. Christian Davenport, _State Repression and Political Order_ ] > In comparison with a war of absolute enmity, the contained war of classical European international law, proceeding by recognized rules, is little more than a duel between cavaliers seeking satisfaction. To a communist like Lenin, imbued with absolute enmity, such a war could only appear to be a mere game, a game that he would play in order to mislead the enemy, but one which he basically despised and thought risible. Carl Schmitt, _Theory of the Partisan_ ??? 1. asd 2. asd 3. asd 4. asd 5. asd --- # National Security and Contentious Politics ![new dynamic model from _Dynamics of Contention_ by McAdam, Tarrow, Tilly](img/2020/newmodel.png) ??? 1. asd 2. asd 3. asd 4. asd 5. asd --- # War and Contentious Politics ![Diagram of forms of lethal conflict, from Contentious Politics by Tilly and Tarrow](img/2020/contentious.png) ??? 1. asd 2. asd 3. asd 4. asd 5. asd --- class: inverse # Reflection Question .question[ Do you think that war and national security should be studied like a continuum, or do you think that differences between war and peace (etc) create discrete states of affairs? ] ??? 1. asd 2. asd 3. asd 4. asd 5. asd --- class: inverse # Part 2: Political Warfare ??? 1. asd 2. asd 3. asd 4. asd 5. asd --- # Political Warfare ![RAND political warfare diagram](img/2020/randpolwarfare.png) ??? Rand diagram from https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1772.html 1. asd 2. asd 3. asd 4. asd 5. asd --- # Insurgency and Pacification > The term "other war," meaning pacification operations, arose in Vietnam to differentiate those operations from the "real war" of conventional search-and-destroy operations. Austin Long, _On "Other War"_ > As long as there is no privacy, as long as every unusual move or event is reported and checked, as long as parents are afraid to talk in front of their children, how can contacts be made, ideas spread, recruiting accomplished? David Galula, _Counterinsurgency Warfare_ ??? Long quote p.2 https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2006/RAND_MG482.pdf --- # Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism ![Diagram of prevent and pursue strands of CONTEST, HMG](img/2020/preventdiagram.png) ??? Contest 2018 Prevent, pursue, protect, prepare 1. asd 2. asd 3. asd 4. asd 5. asd --- # Subversion > ...can be defined as illegal measures short of the use of armed force, taken by one section of the people of a country to overthrow those governing the country at the time, or force them to do things which they do not want to do. > ...although the British prefer to use the security service and the police, rather than the army, to counter subversion within the United Kingdom, this does not mean that either subversion or the countering of it, is any less a manifestation of war. > Subversion is a form of war and countering it, or even fostering it in a hostile foreign country, may, on occasion, have to be included as part of a nation's defence policy. Frank Kitson, _Warfare as a Whole_ ??? non-violent political warfare election interference! Note connections with leninist thought here! --- class: inverse # Reflection Question .question[ How open should democracies be about counter-subversion? ] ??? 1. asd 2. asd 3. asd 4. asd 5. asd --- class: inverse # Part 3: Political Repression ??? 1. asd 2. asd 3. asd 4. asd 5. asd --- # Political Repression > What distinguishes political repression from other forms of control, such as general social control or crime control? Moreover, when is something actually repressive, versus just resistant to change—e.g., what is the difference between people who drag their feet against change versus those who actively suppress actors pushing for change? Jennifer Earl, _Political Repression: Iron Fists, Velvet Gloves, and Diffuse Control_ Key issue for the current context: What counts as political repression? ??? --- # Law and Repression > Dirty wars are unlikely to be subject to recognized laws and conventions. They are likely to be characterized by a seeming absence of rule-bound arrangements. Certainly, the rule of law is likely to be absent. More probably, rule _by_ law will represent the norm, comprising dictates, fiats, edicts, curfews, and other authoritarian methods to impose restrictions on one side while freeing up one’s own forces to do more less what they like. In essence, one might term this as constructing a "façade of legality," using the legitimacy invested in the state to erect a structure that casts a shadow or veil behind which dirty war methods can be instituted. M.L.R. Smith and Sophie Gray, _War in the Gray_ ??? 1. asd 2. asd 3. asd 4. asd 5. asd --- # CT and Political Repression .left-33[ ![Martin McGuiness in first post-ban interview](img/8/interview.png) Martin McGuiness in his first post-ban interview ] .right-33[ > Proscription makes it a criminal offence to: > > - belong, or profess to belong, to a proscribed organisation in the UK or overseas... > - invite support for a proscribed organisation (the support invited need not be material support, such as the provision of money or other property, and can also include moral support or approval)... > - express an opinion or belief that is supportive of a proscribed organisation, reckless as to whether a person to whom the expression is directed will be encouraged to support a proscribed organisation... Home Office, _Proscribed Terrorist Organisations_ ] ??? prohibition also covers arranging meetings, wearing clothing, publishing images of clothes/flags 1. asd 2. asd 3. asd 4. asd 5. asd --- # De-Radicalisation > ...the de-radicalization campaign implements a holistic strategy... adopts different approaches... deploys multifaceted programs... underscores community engagement... is an experimental undertaking. > In regards to the custodial programs in Xinjiang, it is definitely too early to declare success. Zunyou Zhou, _Chinese Strategy for De-radicalization_ > According to this logic, replacing religious beliefs with 'correct' state ideology through re-education is akin to a detoxification process that is freely provided by a benevolent state. > While there is no certainty, it is reasonable to speculate that the total number of detainees is between several hundred thousand and just over one million. Adrian Zenz, _'Thoroughly reforming them towards a healthy heart attitude'_ ??? --- class: inverse # Reflection Question .question[What types of political actors can/can't commit political repression?] ??? 1. asd 2. asd 3. asd 4. asd 5. asd --- class: inverse # Part 4: Problems Facing Institutions and Organisations ??? - Secrecy and Security Institutions - Governing Political Repression - Civil-Military Relations Issues --- # Influence, Populations, and Legitimacy .pull-left[ ![VOA](img/8/voa.jpg) ] .pull-right[ > The danger of domestic dissemination does not lie in the dissemination itself; rather, it lies in _anonymous_ dissemination. To curb the potential harm of covert government propaganda, there must be either legislation or a judicial doctrine that requires the State Department and the BBG* to attribute their materials. Weston R. Sager, _Apple Pie Propaganda?_ * Now U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM) ] ??? --- # Coordination Problems > Another important institutional constraint on pacification was the lack, until very late, of any management structure for it. Neither in Vietnam nor in Washington... was there any agency charged with managing anything so atypical as a pacification program. However important, this aspect of counter-insurgency war had no bureaucratic vested interest speaking for it. Robert W. Komer, _Organization and Management of the New Model Pacification Program_ ??? Quote from p.235 https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/documents/2006/D20104.pdf --- # Organising Security .pull-left[ Organisational constraints - Telos of the organisation - Organisational capacity - Legal and political constraints Rule of law Civil freedoms and civil authorities Institutional interactions, oversight, and accountability ] .pull-right[ > [Police] "Civil Reps" as they have become known, have proved extremely useful. In many areas they are the only members of central or local government that the people know and can turn to. The Civil Rep has become a "Mr Fixit", who is also a mine of information on how to get things done-a "red tape dodger". P.W. Graham, _Low-level Civil/Military Coordination, Belfast, 1970-73_ ] ??? --- # The Intelligence Dillemma .pull-left[ > Information is a key resource in irregular war; it is the link connecting one side’s strength with the other side’s weakness. > It is possible, nevertheless, to distinguish between three major sources of information: material indices, violent extraction, and consensual provision. Stathis Kalyvas, _The Logic of Violence in Civil War_ ] .pull-right[ Problems for states: - Intelligence collection activities that infringe upon civil liberties - Negative social perceptions of intelligence collection in civilian populations - Rumours! Problems for insurgents - Secrecy is life, but intelligence collection exposes networks to denunciation - Balancing intimidation and persuasion is difficult! ] ??? --- class: inverse # Reflection Question .question[Do you think it is ever possible for security organisations to strike a perfect balance between national security and human rights? If not, which side should they err towards?] ??? 1. asd 2. asd 3. asd 4. asd 5. asd --- class: inverse # Part 5: Conclusions and Connections ??? 1. asd 2. asd 3. asd 4. asd 5. asd --- # Key Issues .large[ A key escalation point in social mobilisation and war is when accepted standards of conduct are abandoned by the authorities (either unilaterally or equally in war) Some kinds of political goals logically lead to the violation of normative standards Domestic law is always in flux, but some activities (preventative detention, torture, blanket censorship) are difficult to accomodate within a rule of law framework ] ??? 1. asd 2. asd 3. asd 4. asd 5. asd --- # Key Questions .large[ Can states preserve freedom of speech and conscience, at the same time as seeking to eliminate "harmful" ideas or political beliefs from society? What is the answer to opponents that seek to eliminate you completely? To what extent should state agencies adjust their organisational structures and priorities to deal with threats defined by the government? ] ??? 1. asd 2. asd 3. asd 4. asd 5. asd