class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide # Dirty Wars ## Lecture 11: Targeted Killing and One-Sided Violence ### Jack McDonald ### 2019-12-05 --- class: inverse # Theory Discussion Question .large[ How do you define targeted killings? What 'counts' as a targeted killing? What doesn't count? ] ??? --- # Outline .pull-left[ What dirty wars demonstrate is that one-sided violence is the elementary practice of war. ] .pull-right[ - What's In a Name? - One-Sided Violence in War and Political Repression - Targeted Killings and Institutions ] ??? --- # Line of Argument - Disagreements about the "proper" name for targeted killings reflect deeper disagreements about what they are, and what they are intended to do - Targeted killings demonstrate that asymmetric, hostile, acts of violence are the building block of war (and repression) - The problems we see at the institutional level highlight the problem of observation and knowledge creation in war, and the study of war ??? --- class: inverse # Part 1: What's In a Name? -- A (bad) joke: -- .large[ Q: When is a war not a war? ] -- .large[ A: When it's an extraterritorial non-international armed conflict involving a state and a transnational terrorist network ] ??? --- # I Have Written About This Before... .left-column[ .picblock[   ] ] .right-column[ .medium[ Utility is central to the legal, ethical and political justification of targeted killings - ...and utility is in the eye of the beholder - The justifications used by the Obama administration don't cover the use of signature strikes by the CIA, but do cover like activity by the DOD American interpretations of international law are integral to its strategic culture - American use of force is guided by its own perception of what is, and is not, lawful under international law - Law creates strong pressures for selectivity, but not necessarily for strategic restraint - It's not about the drones, it's about the creation of stable intelligence/responsibility sharing between institutions with very different attitudes towards violence ] ] ??? --- # What Are They?  ??? --- # Do They Work? .medium[ - Steven R. David, _Fatal Choices_ (2002) - They don’t work, but are "effective, however, in providing retribution and revenge for a population under siege and may, over the long term, help create conditions for a more secure Israel." - Audrey Cronin, _Ending Terrorism_ (2008) - They can work, but relationship between decapitation and demise isn’t straightforward - Daniel Byman, _A High Price_ (2011) - "Scraping the barrel" - Bryan C. Price, _Targeting Top Terrorists_ (2012) - HVT killings significantly increase mortality rate of terrorist groups - Johnston & Sarbahi, _The Impact of U.S. Drone Strikes on Terrorism in Pakistan_ (2015) - "drone strikes, while unpopular, have bolstered U.S. counterterrorism efforts in Pakistan" - Gill, Piazza & Horgan, _Counterterrorism Killings and Provisional IRA Bombings, 1970–1998_ (2018) - "while killings committed by British counterterrorism forces are easily measurable because of the publicity they created, other counterterrorism efforts were also likely to impact upon PIRA’s ability to engage in sustained IED attacks yet receive little public acknowledgment." ] ??? --- # Decapitation or Disruption? .pull-left[ > Cases where a group has halted a campaign following the killing of the leader are difficult to find, and those examined here do not support the conclusion that assassination ends terrorism. Audrey Cronin, _How Terrorism Ends_ ] .pull-right[ > The number of skilled terrorists is often quite limited... If these generators of terror can be eliminated through arrests or killings, the organization as a whole is disrupted. The movement may still have many willing recruits, but it is no longer effective. Daniel Byman, _A High Price_ ] --- # Something Else? .pull-left[ > For many, industrial metaphors were more appropriate to the relentless process of changing shifts, nightly raids and ceaseless target development work... McChrystal himself often described his whole setup in Iraq as 'the machine'. Mark Urban, _Task Force Black_ ] .pull-right[  ] ??? --- # But... > ...it is increasingly clear that many consequences of counterterrorism policies cause harm to other national and societal interests, however unintended these secondary effects may be. Martha Crenshaw, _Terrorism Research: The Record_ > ...the measurement of effectiveness requires set criteria, which presupposes a common normative standard. For example, it is necessary to agree on the purpose of counterinsurgency: is it regime survival at any cost, or do we engage in these contests to serve higher purposes and ideals? Democratic statecraft is oriented toward an open political opportunity structure for its people, and the actions of the state are judged by this standard. David Ucko, _'The People are Revolting': An Anatomy of Authoritarian Counterinsurgency_ ??? --- class: inverse # Small Group Discussion .question[ Is there anything specific about the forms of killing found in "dirty wars"? ] ??? --- class: inverse # Part 2: One-Sided Violence in War and Political Repression ??? --- # Duels, or Ordering Violence? .pull-left[ > War is nothing but a duel on a larger scale... Each tries by physical force to compel the other to do his will; his immediate object is to overthrow his adversary and thereby make him incapable of any further resistance. Carl von Clausewitz, _On War_ (Trans: Jolles) ] .pull-right[ > war is defined by fighting or its immanent possibility and—as an historical, existential, issue in the lives of those who seek to understand it—this definitive element resists disinterested analysis, while tending to instrumentalize knowledge about war. Tarak Barkawi and Shane Brighton, _Powers of War_ ] ??? Brighton/Barkawi quote p.135 --- # The Constitution of War .pull-left[ At what point is a country or polity at war? How do we define the limitations and boundaries of war? - Spatial (geographical limits) - Temporal (start, stop) Is it possible to draw a sharp line between war and peace? ] .pull-right[ > The rules of war define war itself, and... arguments over the applicability or non-applicability of these rules are central to understanding the constitution of war in our world. Jack McDonald, _Enemies Known and Unknown_ ] ??? quote from p.87 --- # One-Sided Violence in War, Peace, and Strategy .pull-left[ > The basic essence of the program is a fully coordinated intelligence effort of all existing GVN and United States agencies targeted specifically on the VCI with the express purpose of neutralizing its effectiveness and control over the people. CIA, _Factsheet for the Senate Armed Services Committee_ ] .pull-right[  ] ??? https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP80R01720R001100030004-9.pdf --- # The Individualisation of War .left-column[   ] .right-column[ > [Reductivists] think that all justified killing, in war or outside of it, is justified at root by precisely the same properties. In their most extreme moments, they argue that wars are justified if and only if they are composed exclusively of justified acts of individual self- and other-defense. Nonreductivists think, in a nutshell, that there is something different about killing in war. Wars have some distinctive properties that are relevant to the morality of killing. Seth Lazar, _Just War Theory: Revisionists Versus Traditionalists_ ] ??? --- class: inverse # Part 3: Targeted Killings and Institutions ??? --- # Political Problems  ??? --- # Information and Institutional Problems .pull-left[ > Democracies do not make war on the basis of legal memos locked in a D.O.J. safe. General Michael Hayden, Retd. - Interoperability - Intelligence Sharing - Infrastructure - Policy and Politics ] .pull-right[  ] ??? --- # The Observability of Armed Conflict  ??? --- # What's an Academic To Do? .left-column[    ] .right-column[ > After the dust cloud dissipated, all that remained of Mehsud was a detached torso. Eleven others died: his wife, his father-in-law, his mother-in-law, a lieutenant, and seven bodyguards. Jane Mayer, _The Predator Drone War_ - The problem of measuring judgments - The problem of measuring precision - The problem of measuring effects ] ??? --- # \*Cough\* Buy My Books \*Cough\* .left-column[   ] .right-column[ Jack McDonald, _Drones and the European Union: Prospects for a Common Future_, Chatham House (February 2018) Jack McDonald, _Enemies Known and Unknown: Targeted Killings in America’s Transnational War_, Hurst & Co./OUP (April 2017) Jack McDonald, _Ethics, Law and Justifying Targeted Killings: The Obama Administration at War_, Routledge (August 2016) ]